I was there for most of last season from Section 209, watching Nebraska become something Nebraska basketball had never been before. I watched the pieces fit together. I watched the confidence grow. I watched a veteran team stop looking like a nice story and start looking like a legitimate problem for everybody on the schedule.
I’ll be back in Section 209 again this year.
And that’s exactly why I’m not ready to pretend replacing what walked out the door is automatic.
Nebraska went 28-7 last season, finished 15-5 in the Big Ten and reached the first Sweet 16 in program history. The Huskers set a school record for victories and finally broke through an NCAA Tournament wall that had stood for generations.
The question now isn’t whether Fred Hoiberg can build a winner in Lincoln. He already did.
The question is how much of that success can be replaced in one offseason.
There’s a difference between potentially better individual talent and being a better basketball team.That’s the entire argument.
The Expectation
I like this roster. I trust Fred. I think Nebraska absolutely has NCAA Tournament potential.
I also think a chunk of the fanbase has skipped directly from “good portal class” to “everything was upgraded,” and that’s where I pump the brakes.
OUTSIDE NCAA TOURNAMENT
Nebraska was picked fifth in the Big Ten preseason media poll and landed just outside the preseason AP Top 25. That feels about right.
Not rebuilding. Not starting over. But not automatically recreating a 28-win Sweet 16 team because the transfer portal looked good in April.
The Numbers That Actually Matter
One of the easiest ways to make a portal argument look better than it really is is to add five incoming players together and compare them to four outgoing players.
So normalize it.
Take each player’s 2025-26 production and calculate the average player in each group.
Outgoing Four
Incoming Five
Yes, the incoming group averaged a little more scoring and rebounding.
They also averaged fewer assists, had a considerably lower assist-to-turnover ratio and shot worse from both three and the free-throw line.
That doesn’t mean the transfers are bad. It means the phrase “all upgrades” deserves more scrutiny than it usually gets in a social-media comment section.
Then There’s the Number You Can’t Find in a Box Score
That matters. A lot.
Those guys weren’t learning Fred’s offense in November. They knew the reads. They knew the spacing. They knew the defensive responsibilities. They understood the terminology, the expectations and what came next when the first option disappeared.
Sam Hoiberg finished last season with elite ball security and Big Ten All-Defensive recognition. Mast was a proven Big Ten player. Lawrence had already left Nebraska, played elsewhere and returned knowing exactly how his game fit Fred’s system.
And from Section 209, that familiarity was visible.
Last year didn’t look like five guys taking turns having good nights. It looked like a basketball team that understood one another.
Portal talent can replace production. It doesn’t automatically replace chemistry, timing or trust.
The Good News: There Is Real Talent Here
This isn’t an argument that Nebraska had a bad offseason. Quite the opposite.
The six-man transfer class arrives with more than 160 career starts and roughly 2,800 points, 1,450 rebounds and 779 assists. Trevan Leonhardt, Sam Orme and Damon Wilkinson all earned all-conference honors last season.
Leonhardt may be the most fascinating addition. He brings positional size, playmaking and a track record of running an offense. Boden Kapke brings something else the group needs: three seasons of power-conference experience from Boston College and Butler.
And Nebraska didn’t lose everything.
Pryce Sandfort returns after averaging 18.1 points while shooting 41.6 percent from three. Braden Frager returns after averaging 11.8 points and winning Big Ten Sixth Man of the Year. Connor Essegian is back after an injury derailed last season.
That is why my ceiling isn’t the NIT.
There’s enough here to be really good.
But the Big Ten Isn’t a Portal Spreadsheet
None of the five newcomers in this comparison has previously played for a Big Ten program.
Kapke has ACC and Big East experience, so his transition is different. But the others are coming from Belmont, San Diego State, Utah Valley and South Dakota State into a league where the size, length and athleticism show up every night.
That doesn’t erase what they accomplished elsewhere. It means translation isn’t guaranteed.
The Big Ten isn’t going to care what somebody averaged in another conference.
And Nebraska’s schedule isn’t built to give a reworked roster three months to figure itself out.
That January stretch is a wood chipper.
Talent can get Nebraska through it. Continuity would have made it easier.
The Exhibitions Are Warning Lights, Not Fire Alarms
Nebraska has already dropped exhibitions to Saint Louis and BYU.
I don’t care about exhibition records.
I do care about what they expose.
Against BYU, Nebraska committed 18 turnovers and BYU turned them into 21 points. Those are exactly the kinds of possessions that become expensive when a new group is learning how to play together.
No panic button required. But pretending those things don’t matter because “it’s only an exhibition” misses the point of playing exhibitions in the first place.
So What Does Success Look Like?
If everything clicks quickly, I think Nebraska can be a 7 seed.
Sandfort needs to look like an All-Big Ten player. Frager needs another step. Leonhardt has to translate his playmaking to Big Ten defenses. Nebraska needs reliable interior production, and somebody has to replace a chunk of what Sam Hoiberg gave this team without needing the basketball to do it.
Most importantly, the newcomers need to become a team rather than five successful résumés sharing a locker room.
If that happens early, Nebraska should be dancing again.
If it takes until January or February, the schedule may not wait for them.
That’s where my floor comes from.
Not disaster. Not a losing season.
A good team sitting around the bubble with 19 or 20 wins, some really good victories, a handful of painful missed opportunities and a résumé that isn’t quite good enough on Selection Sunday.
And That’s Not Being Negative
Saying Nebraska probably won’t automatically repeat the greatest season in program history isn’t disrespect.
It’s the opposite.
It’s respecting how difficult last season was.
I was there for most of it. I watched it from Section 209.
And I’ll be sitting there again this year.
So I’m not rooting against this team. I’m not hoping the portal additions fail. I want Nebraska to blow straight through my ceiling.
But I also watched enough of last year’s team up close to know that what made it special wasn’t just points and rebounds.
It was experience. Chemistry. Decision-making. Trust.
It was a group of players who had been around Fred’s system long enough to know what came next before it happened.
That’s the part Nebraska has to replace.
And that’s why I’m excited about this team without pretending anything is guaranteed.
Ceiling: 7 seed.I’ll be there finding out with everybody else.
Floor: bubble team.
Section 209: occupied.
Sources & Methodology
Statistics and schedule information were verified against official school records and current 2026-27 materials. Incoming-versus-outgoing figures are simple per-player averages across the five incoming players and four outgoing players discussed in the article. Shooting percentages in that comparison give each player equal weight, rather than weighting by total attempts.
- Nebraska Athletics: 2026-27 Men's Basketball Roster
- Nebraska Athletics: 2026-27 Schedule
- Nebraska Athletics: 2026-27 portal class career production and home-court notes
- Nebraska Athletics: Sandfort and Frager 2025-26 production
- Nebraska Athletics: Boden Kapke signing and power-conference experience
- Nebraska Athletics: Trevan Leonhardt signing and Utah Valley production
- Nebraska Athletics: 2026-27 non-conference schedule
Analysis and projections are the author’s opinion. Statistics are historical indicators, not guarantees of 2026-27 production.